Predictive Mediation
The way forecasts reshape the situations they claim only to describe.
Theory
Predictive mediation names the phenomenon in which a forecast, once acted upon, becomes a constituent of the situation it forecasts. Predictions do not merely describe futures; they organise attention, allocate resources, and license interventions that alter the very trajectories being predicted.
This creates an epistemic and ethical puzzle: the standards by which we evaluate predictions (calibration, accuracy) presuppose a describable-but-not-shaped world, whereas deployed predictions typically shape the world they describe.
The concept clarifies why 'better predictions' can produce worse outcomes when the mediation is unacknowledged, and why responsibility for predictive systems must include responsibility for the situations they help constitute.
Key publications
- Programmatic paper on predictive mediation and epistemic responsibility (Philosophy & Technology).
- Applications to predictive medicine and behavioural forecasting (Behavioral Sciences; Journal of Health Communication).
- Theological reflections on human formation under conditions of predictive mediation (Theology and Science).
A continually updated record is available through the publications page.
Current work
- A theory of 'mediation-aware evaluation' for predictive systems.
- Empirical work on clinical and administrative settings where predictive mediation is pronounced.
- Contribution to ongoing debates on optimisation, autonomy, and human formation.